It seems like just a decade or two ago when I held forth on corona-chan here. Might as well judge the predictions and propositions of those charming days of old. There is some crow to eat.

Open borders - well, was a waste of time to worry about that stuff, since "covid zero" moats are impossible to maintain.

Masks - well, was a waste of time to worry about that stuff, given that "non-medical" masks (and even medical ones) in the general public have unanimously, everywhere failed to prevent covid infection waves, and cannot be compliant with technical standards that don't exist. I was mislead as to their usefulness by early info on "droplet" transmission. But we have known for a year now that aerosol is at least as important. Cotton rags do nothing for that. Nevertheless, masks became a conformity display for a newly polarized society. Blind spot #1: I didn't expect that authorities would double down and Karens would go mad for NPI. But since madness is useful to the powers that be, useless masks have stayed around ever since.

Lockdowns - was right on that one.

Essential services - was right on that one.

Transparency - oh boy was I ever right on that one. Unpleasant, embarrassing, scary information that would put the Narrative in question has been ruthlessly suppressed. This tactic may have won the battle for majority mindshare, but lost the strategic war of trust in institutions. Even among true believers, I suspect there is no more loyalty, only fear and obedience. Respect for media & government may never recover, insallah.

Pessimism - was wrong to the extent that infrastructure workers around the world managed to keep others alive during lockdowns, even long ones. Was right to the extent that those same infrastructure workers are now under attack by vaccine mandates and other government-induced market distortions, leading our supply chain to show signs of buckling at last. To my surprise, normal people in my circles are prepping for worse - some have simply left the country. Blind spot #2?

Optimism - was right, annoyingly, to the extent that the miracle mRNA vaccines did in fact arrive in late 2020. Heck, they should've arrived in time for Trump's reelection. However, I was wrong that they would fix things, so very wrong. They did not stop the moving goalposts. They suffered from ho-hum safety and short efficacy. Instead of calming people, they gave rise to a new wave of mass hysteria and polarization. Foolish governments enacted a few vaccine mandates for social activities -- ill advised but tolerable. But blind spot #3 stopped me from predicting that this nudge-nudge-wink-wink would invite employers to amplify that into a full blown purges of nonconformists. Whether court action, other government leaders, public pressure, or exsanguination from shooting-their-own-foot will force them to reconsider is up in the air.

What a time to be alive.

Posted Fri 08 Oct 2021 04:28:17 PM EDT