Subject: New Scientist article

From: [email-masked] (Robert Dorsett)
Date: 08 Dec 92 15:51:04 PST

In article <[email-masked]> [email-masked] (Peter Nelson) writ
es:
>>Remember that the standard definition of an airline pilot's job is 99.999%
>>pute boredom, and 0.001% pure terror (I forget where this quote came from,
>>and the ratios may be incorrect) - if this is anything like true, maybe
>>human pilots really are on the edge of extinction ?
>
>   _New Scientist_ had an article devoted to this about 3 issues ago.
>
>   Basically they said that as the % of "pilot error" crashes increases
>   we may already be at the point where more lives would be saved by
>   pilotless airplanes.

I looked through recent issues of _New Scientist_, seeking the article
Peter referred to.  It appears to be a 2-page essay from the October 17
issue, entitled "Will Accidents Always Happen?"

The author of the article, Julian Moxon, has written for FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 
for a number of years: his specialty appears to be safety; he's produced
a number of good, comprehensive summaries and analyses of various crashes.

Peter's comment seemed to suggest Moxon was advocating pilotless aircraft; 
in the context of previous post, I construed this as along the lines of 
Bernard Ziegler's "The computer can do it better" rhetoric, and reacted
accordingly. :-)  Moxon's point, however, is a bit more, well, integrated, 
and, if anything, far more ambitious.  It's less an attack against *pilots*, 
per se, which has characterized Ziegler's remarks, but more a criticism of 
the ATC system.  His basic point is that most crashes are landing crashes, 
controlled-flight-into-terrain.  Some are caused by ATC malfeasance, some are 
interface problems.  From the concluding remarks:

"More worrying is that the skies are becoming increasingly congested,
with predictions (despite the recession) of a doubling in air traffic movements
over the coming decade.  This puts extra pressure on the whole air transport
system, not least on the pilots and air traffic controllers in the front 
line.  In general, the system is (or will be) good enough to handle the
extra traffic but--the statistics suggest--probably not good enough to
prevent crashes like that in Kathmandu.  It is as if we have arrived at the
bare minimum of accidents.  The challenge will be to maintain this minimum,
given denser air traffic.

"An inevitable question being asked in an increasingly automated world
is whether we still need pilots.  In many modern aircraft, the entire flight 
apart from the takeoff can handled by the autopilot, once programmed.  But
for obvious reasons, this is an emotive subject, which aircraft manufacturers 
carefully avoid in their official statements.  Still, some designers are 
beginning to think seriously about the possibilities of making the flight 
crew's role more to do with systems management than flying the aircraft.

"This would make the pilot part of a team including the entire air traffic 
system.  Direct communication with the aircraft and its systems would be 
established by a radio-borne digital data link.  This would send information 
on the aircraft's behavior to the ground and receive navigation data and 
commands that could be fed directly into its flight management system.  
Global positioning satellites would meanwhile observe it constantly.

"Pilots worry that this would reduce them to little more than highly paid 
observers monitoring the aircraft's progress through the skies.  But that 
time is a long way off.  In the meantime, the focus remains on the behavior 
of the human brain."

Those interested in a more extreme version of this would enjoy David 
Learmount's interview with Bernard Ziegler, in Flight International, 
September 23-29, 1992, Pp. 35-36.  Ziegler is sort of Airbus's chief priest.

---
Robert Dorsett
[email-masked]
...cs.utexas.edu!cactus.org!rdd

---

From: [email-masked] (Duane F Marble)
Date: 09 Dec 92 18:45:33 PST

A small point with respect to the material quoted from the New
Scientist: Global Positioning System (GPS) birds do not "observe"
anything, they just permit a ground based unit to compute it's
location.
-- 
Duane F. Marble			       E-mail: [email-masked]
Department of Geography                Telephone: (614) 292-2250
The Ohio State University
Columbus, Ohio 43210                   Fax: (614) 292-6213

---

From: [email-masked] (Harry Funk)
Date: 10 Dec 92 16:07:15 PST

>anything, they just permit a ground based unit to compute it's

My guess is that he was referring to Automatic Dependent Surveillance (ADS)
systems based on SATCOM, which has even less to to with GPS/Glonass birds.

The planes [would] communicate their positions by means of a satellite link
to a ground-based tracking/control system.  United currently has a few
747-400's that are so equipped.  The major benefit envisioned is for
oceanic routes, where the fixed spacing (slots) system currently used
results in suboptimal tracks for a number of users of the system.  ADS is
the successor to the Oceanic Display and Planning System (ODAPS), which I
think is currently installed at the Oakland and NY Air Route Traffic
Control Centers (ARTCCs).  
--
Harry A. Funk     Principal Research Scientist        Voice: (612)-782-7396
Honeywell Systems and Research Center             FAX:       (612)-782-7438
3660 Technology Dr.   MS:MN65-2500           Inet:  [email-masked]
Minneapolis, MN 55418 			Bang:  <any-smart-host>!srcsip!funk

---

From: [email-masked] (Ralph N. Smith)
Date: 11 Dec 92 17:42:31 PST

>Control Centers (ARTCCs).  

A few clarifying remarks about ADS.  Technically, what United is currently
doing in the Pacific is position reporting, where the aircraft sends a
given set of information to the ground at fixed intervals.  ADS systems
involve more ground interaction, with the ground-based systems
specifying the types of information desired, and the circumstances under
which that information is provided, either periodically or at the
occurrence of certain events in a flight.

Also, there needs to be a differentiation made between the service
provided by the aircraft, in this case ADS, and the communications by
which the information is being sent.  With a proper communications
infrastructure, ADS and other air-ground communications based
applications, can run without being concerned which particular
air-ground data link is carrying the data, whether it be satellite, VHF
radio, or any of a variety of communications links.  ADS can also be
used to retrieve intent information from an aircraft, in addition to
current status information.

Work is currently under way to integrate ADS reporting into the ODAPS
system, rather than replacing it, at least in the near term.  Also, an
ADS-based application is one of the products to be produced by the
Aeronautical Telecommunication Network (ATN) Project (ATNP).  Several
organizations in the aviation community are involved in the ATNP,
including airlines (United is among them), avionics manufacturers, and
the FAA.

The potential benefits of ADS are substantial, including increased
safety, and substantial savings in fuel and flight time.

Ralph N. Smith					[email-masked]
The MITRE Corporation				(703)883-6084
McLean, Virginia

All views and opinions are my own, so don't try to hold my employer
responsible.