Subject: Article on "The Argument Against ISDN"

From: [email-masked] (Peter Marshall) (by way of [email-masked] (Mitch Kapor))
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 1991 19:46:57 -0500

...Let's set the mirrors aside and see what we really have with ISDN:
 ISDN provides 64 kilobit digital, full-duplex data. It does so to any
 other ISDN line when using a carrier that is fully digital, compatible
 and offers the service.
 ISDN provides point-to-point connections, similar to a telephone.
 Connections can be established in a few seconds.
 ISDN provides several enhanced features, such as calling line 
 identification and data privacy....
Telephone companies invariably fear new technology.... New technology
upsets rate structures. And new technology upsets *the natural order of 
things.*
ISDN is a new technology.... ISDN represents competition to local 
dialtone loops.... There are many questions. The traditional telco 
response is simple: Charge a high enough price that these concerns 
simply go away because of the profits generated....
implementation of ISDN has involved changing out central office lines. 
Designing $1000 boxes for the customer end. It has meant converting the 
*entire* public nationwide network to an all-digital one. In short, ISDN 
was designed to take more than a decade to implement....
ISDN has some serious "reality checks" to go through to succeed. And
unless it can pass that reality check, it will be increasingly a fantasy. 
Back when it was just a dream, it might have made sense to charge twice 
as much for an ISDN call....
But today, modems are equally fast, and thus ISDN *cannot* cost more per 
minute if it is to succeed in the mainstream marketplace.
Because not everybody has ISDN lines to every desktop, ISDN has less 
effective connectivity than a modem. And this, too, reduces the value of 
ISDN.
Because telephone companies are in no position to prevent independent 
competitive technology from being introduced, they will have to compete. 
The cost of installing an ISDN line must be low.... The cost of ISDN 
terminal equipment must be lowered....
What can be done to preserve the potential benefits of ISDN's ubiquitous 
digital service...?
ISDN is better suited for some types of data than modems will be for 
perhaps another five years.... ISDN achieves its 64,000 bits per second 
speed *without* compression. This could be a tellingly significant 
point.... ISDN can combine a voice line with a data line for 
simultaneous use. This can eliminate the need for a second line....
ISDN, being a network service, may combine to offer X.25-like capability. 
This means that a single ISDN termination could maintain many 
simultaneous "virtual" connections through a packet-switched network....
To widely succeed, ISDN needs an aggressive posture. Terminal equipment 
costs must be affordable(or lower), per minute rate charges must be 
comparable(or lower), and efforts need to be made to achieve 
compatability with existing software.
Otherwise, ISDN will merely service your Group IV FAX machine and your 
desktop video system. Maybe this is enough for your telephone company. 
But is it really enough for you?...

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