18ish months have passed since the election of the federal Liberal party in Canada. My one or two readers might recall blog-0667, where I asked for specific predictions. It's time to score. Here are those old predictions:
(Frank) $8B annual federal deficits (sorry, kids!)
Wew lads, the actual 2017 budget deficit is $28.5 billion. It's far worse than I thought.
(Frank) +10% in my taxes
My federal income taxes have gone up 8% while my pay went up 0.8%. Prediction failed, strictly speaking. It is still obscene (both in relative and absolute terms), and doesn't count provincial/municipal/other taxes, which also increased.
(Lukas) A reduction in the annual TFSA contribution room back to the $5500 (indexed) amount
Yup.
(Lukas) Re-enactment (in some form) of the long gun registry
Nope, but there are stirrings, and the RCMP continues its gun reclassification shenanigans.
(Lukas) Legalization and taxation of marijuana (ok, that’s my pie in the sky/hell freezes over, prediction)
Correct, this is under way.
(Jay) I'm predicting less money in my pocket (from higher taxes) ..... but I hope I'm wrong.
Correct, of course.
(David) Amending bill c51 for starters
Nope. The bill the liberals voted for, then campaigned against, is still untouched.
(David) Independent foreign policies that don't blindly follow US.
Probably correct. Trudeau seems to be enjoying his role as an anti-Trump. (This is in no way an endorsal of the "independent foreign policy", only a agreement that it is independent!)
(David) A more compassionate government over all and a less fear based government for starters!
I never learned how to measure this, so no score.
The grand totals on prediction success indicate congratulations are in order for Jay. I think this is a healthy exercise, and any honest and thoughtful elector should consider doing the same.
| Frank | 50% |
| Lukas | 66% |
| Jay | 100% |
| David | 50% |
A week ago, both boys were among a dozen kids invited to perform for the local Women's Probus Club, on account of their competition in the Kiwanis Music Festival. We were there to entertain a lunchtime crowd of older ladies who get together monthly to socialize. It was a school day, so the other kids' & parents' availability was limited. Thus the show wasn't just the top overall winners, but a nice little mix of young and less young, a wide range of grade levels. Less than an hour in total.
The hundred ladies of the club were very polite and attentive while sitting around the dozens of circular tables. A clearly-spoken MC read out the biography of each performer, and the right level of claps always arrived before & after. There was often just a little bit of murmur in the background as the kids were playing, nothing offensive. Eventually Eric was called up. Polite clap after his bio was read out. He sat down, examined the odd little CD player nailed to the piano, then started playing his Mozart piece.
Two bars in, the place went silent.
Not Eric of course, he kept playing.
But the din was done, gone. I caught a glimpse of more happy faces turning around to face the piano. Eric played it, almost as well as he ever has. 140 seconds later, it was over. There was a collective breath, a few quiet wows, and then applause. Another piece, then other kids followed, and they probably received the same good silent treatment, but I was in a little smiley world of my own by then, reliving the "hush ... wow".